New Census Bureau Projections: U.S. Population Will Add 97 Million by 2060

• Donald Mann
• December 17, 2014
• President's Column
• 0 Comments

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New Census Bureau Projections:
U.S. Population Will Add 97 Million by 2060

 Even with the death rate rising more than 20 percent by 2045, America will still add over 97 million people by 2060.

The latest population projections by the Census Bureau show more bad news for Americans concerned with population growth: our nation will reach over 416 million people by 2060. That’s an increase of more than 97 million people, growth of over 30%. By these projections, America will grow by an average of over: 2.1 million people per year… 175,000 per month… 5,800 per day… for the next 46 years.

According to Census, America’s foreign-born population will also experience huge growth – rising from nearly 43.3 million in 2015 to 78.2 million in 2060, an increase of nearly 81%. By 2060, Census anticipates that net international migration will account for nearly 1.5 million new Americans each year. Even this huge projection of entries may well be low. Major immigrant-sending nations continue to grow rapidly, and have major supportive diasporas in the U.S. In both parties, political and business elites show little will to slow the flow or tighten enforcement. (See NPG’s recent Forum paper Foreign-Born Population Keeps Rising: Immigration Trumps Critical Need for U.S. Population Reduction.)

The projections also call for a significant slump in natural increase (the excess of births over deaths). Although the data shows a “low-point” of just 314,000 added in 2049 – which will likely be misinterpreted to mean our nation’s growth will slow within the next 35 years – America’s natural increase begins to climb again the very next year. Make no mistake – although the source of growth is shifting, our nation’s population is continuing to grow.

With the aging-out of the Baby Boomer population, death rates are projected to increase by over 20 percent by 2045 – significantly cutting overall growth from natural increase. This natural phenomenon is already stirring alarm bells among pro-growth activists, who use it to justify increasingly generous immigration policies – just as President Obama did in defending his recent executive mandate amnestying millions of illegal aliens.

Like the fabled tale of Chicken Little, the open-border, business, and pronatalist lobbies – who stand to gain from higher immigration and a larger population – have warned: “beware the aging of America! The sky is falling on our nation’s prosperity!” They warn of future stagnation, unless we import a massive young workforce of immigrants who will keep America strong for decades into the future. Our growth-minded political elites do not accept that as our nation’s population continues to grow, our environment, economy, natural resources, infrastructure – our very quality of life – all continue to decline. But more population growth is not a solution to our problems – it will only worsen them for generations to come.

Growth-seekers prize immigrants – not only as workers and consumers, but as producers of larger families than native-born Americans. As the foreign-born population becomes a steadily larger percentage of our national total, they are projected to raise overall U.S. birth numbers – at least until those immigrants assume the preference of the native-born for lower fertility.

By 2060, Census projects there will be over 4.5 million births each year – and our growth from natural increase will be again on the ascent, rising every year after the low in 2049. America’s population growth during those interim years (when the natural increase dips lower) will be almost entirely due to immigrants and their U.S.-born children.

The data is clear: regardless of shifting demographics, the aging of the Baby Boomers, or the philosophical implications of our widening immigration policies, America’s population is growing – and it will continue to do so at an alarming rate in the decades ahead. We must act now and embrace national policies which work to slow, halt, and eventually reverse U.S. population growth – before it is too late. We must take actions today to preserve a livable America for future generations.