Stormy Seas and Head in the Sand (NPG Footnote)

• Lindsey Grant
• August 1, 1997
• Forum Papers
• Forum Paper
• 0 Comments

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An NPG Forum Paper
(NPG Footnote) 
by Lindsey Grant
August 1997

The Wall Street Journal on April 1st ran a page one lead story about the promise of the new Hibernia oil field off Newfoundland (“Politics, Money and Nature Had Kept Vast Deposit on Ice,” by Staff Reporter Allana Sullivan). The lead sentence set the tone:

“Just as the ice-filled seas near here hid the secrets of the Titanic for decades, so too has the stormy North Atlantic concealed vast reserves of oil buried deep beneath its seabed.” Then the article rhapsodized: “… one of the largest oil discoveries in North America in decades should deliver its first oil by year-end. At least 20 more fields may follow, offering over one billion barrels of high-quality crude and promising that a steady flow of oil will be just a quick tanker run away from the energy-thirsty East coast. At a time when most of the U.S.’s oil comes from politically risky nations, the security of a nearby oil reserve largely owned by U.S. companies and in a friendly country is hard to overestimate.”

The energy transition will not be so easily resolved. What the author left out is that a billion barrels of oil is just 56 days’ U.S. consumption at current levels or 14 days’ world consumption. Even that “billion or more” figure may be hyperbole. It is supported by only one citation: an estimate of “a minimum of 615 million barrels of oil, and likely more” by Mobil, the principal partner in the Hibernia field. That lowers its contribution to 34 days and 9 days, respectively.

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