AFRICAN IMMIGRATION HURTS THE U.S…AND AFRICA

• Edwin S. Rubenstein
• December 27, 2018
• Forum Papers
• Forum Paper
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AFRICAN IMMIGRATION HURTS THE U.S…AND AFRICA

An NPG Forum Paper
by Edwin S. Rubenstein

Unlike other advanced industrial countries U.S. population continues to increase, mainly because of immigration. That is a well-known fact. Not nearly so well-known is the role of Sub-Saharan immigrants in driving U.S. population growth. The overall growth of this population has been nothing short of extraordinary:

The Sub-Saharan African immigrant population roughly doubled every decade between 1980 and 2010, and rose by another 29% from 2010 to 2015. In 2016 (latest available data) 1,769,778 lived in the U.S., accounting for 4% of the nation’s 43 million immigrants. Their share will inevitably increase: Eight percent of persons granted legal permanent resident status in 2015 were Sub-Saharan Africans, as were more than one-third of all refugees admitted that year.

The oversized role played by Sub-Saharan Africans in U.S. population growth should not come as a surprise. For decades the region’s population has grown faster than other major sources of U.S. immigrants.

The main reason for Sub-Saharan population growth is a sharp decline in infant and child mortality without a commensurate reduction in fertility rates, as occurred in Asia during its demographic transition in the 1990s. In China, lower child mortality was coupled with a single-child policy and increased access to contraceptives; the results are evident in the inflection of the China line. India has recently replaced Mexico and China as the leading source of new U.S. immigrants – an outcome also consistent with the graphic.

In 1980, Sub-Saharan Africa’s population was about 370 million; today it is over 1 billion. It is projected to double again, to 2.2 billion by 2050 – that’s close to the entire world population of 1950.

Sub-Saharan women reportedly want fewer children, but their political leaders still believe that education and economic growth alone will trigger a reduction in fertility. The ultimate goal is the elusive “demographic dividend,” a reduction in the number of children each worker must support.[…]  

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