NPG Report Finds Little Comfort and Questionable Assumptions in Census Projections
- NPG
- June 19, 2013
- Press Releases
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[fbshare type=”button”] Alexandria, VA (June 19, 2013) – The Census Bureau’s most recent population projections, released in late 2012 and May 2013, project slower growth to mid-century than its 2009 projections. Census’ middle – or most likely – scenario has the U.S. reaching 399 million by 2050, nine percent lower than the 439 million earlier projected.
These findings are assessed in a new NPG Forum paper: “Growth Slows, But No End in Sight in Latest Census Projections,” written by NPG senior advisor Dave Simcox. NPG President Don Mann sees little to cheer about in the new numbers. “Even though slightly reduced, the projections point to an undesirable outcome: an already over-populated nation will add 70 million to 108 million new residents by mid-century.”
“Even these worrisome numbers,” Mann added, “are based on questionable assumptions that immigration through 2050 will be 40 percent lower than projected just four years ago.” The report cautions that the projections are not predictions, but a warning that today’s trends could mean a dystopian future.
While recognizing that recession has slowed net immigration since 2008, the NPG Forum paper questions Census’ assumptions that this will be a lasting trend. One factor is the resumption of economic growth in the U.S., combined with the growing conviction among national leaders that immigration boosts growth and is an antidote to unemployment.
This belief in an “immigration elixir” underlies the current drive for expansion in the White House and on Capitol Hill. The projections also apparently gave little weight to conditions abroad – the rapid population growth and urbanization in countries that have now built solid immigration channels to the U.S.
NPG’s Forum paper deplores Census’ omission of past projections of population trajectory under an assumption of zero net migration, a population policy long advocated by NPG. Simcox regrets that concerned Americans were denied consideration of this reasonable option for ending and reversing the nation’s destructive population growth. Census’ 2009 zero net migration projections showed the U.S. reaching negative population growth as early as 2048.
Negative Population Growth is a non-profit membership organization which works to educate the American public and elected leaders with regard to the devastating effects of any further growth in the size of our already overpopulated country.
