Don’t be fooled by the headlines!

• NPG
• April 7, 2021
• NPG Commentary
• 0 Comments

April 8, 2021

We have all read stories of the “dire” situation the United States faces as we continue to experience lower birth rates, leading to reduced projections for overall U.S. population.  In addition to a drop in birth rates, COVID-19 led to a general decline in the number of immigrants entering the country – at least until the Biden Administration took office.  The media has made it a priority to talk about the negative side of reduced growth rates.

For those receiving this email, this is likely welcome news.  After all, NPG was founded 49 years ago to call for such action – a slow and gradual reduction in our population size until we reach a smaller, truly sustainable, level.  We have always advocated for voluntary incentives to reduce fertility rates – such as access to birth control and broader educational opportunities for women – as well as limits on the number of immigrants we allow to settle in the U.S. each year.

Some are writing and speaking on the long-term effects of this slight downturn and how our nation will struggle economically and may never be able to compete with the fast-growing economy of China, in particular.

I offer this:  U.S. population growth certainly slowed during the depression of the 1930s and the U.S. entry into World War II.  Even 8^th grade civics students know what followed that decline: The Baby Boom, which lasted from about 1946 until about 1964.  During that time, more than 78 million babies were born in the United States.  While we do not predict another surge of this magnitude, the idea that fertility choices will return to a more growth-oriented practice is certainly not out of the question.

Add to this possibility the shockingly irresponsible situation occurring on the southern border.  Tens of thousands of hopeful immigrants are lining up to receive their chance at the ultimate prize – a pathway to U.S. citizenship.  We will not fully understand the effects of the Amnesty plan, if it is all enacted into law, until we learn of the number of applicants.  Some estimates go as high as 22 million illegal immigrants in the United States as of early 2021.  (NPG will soon release a new paper on this estimate.) This does not include the caravans making their way through Mexico and to our southern border every day and into the future.

So, we must ask ourselves: why should we be so concerned about a slight reduction in our growth rate?  Even a reduced growth rate still amounts to more people, because it is still growth!  An article from the Brookings Institute claims that the U.S. population grew by “just” .35% between July 1, 2019 and July 1, 2020.  What they don’t tell you is that even at that “low” level the U.S. still added more than a million people in just one year, a year believed to be our lowest growth year in more than a century!

Let’s not be fooled by the media headlines.  Slow or fast, all growth amounts to more people to feed, clothe, house, educate, and employ. With a population of 330 million, the U.S. is already vastly overpopulated.  For a logical frame of reference, the U.S. population was about 141 million at the start of the Baby Boom in 1946.  Considering we have added almost 190 million additional people in the last 75 years, perhaps a “slow down” is exactly what we need!