What Can We Do as a Nation to Address Climate Displacement?

NPG
March 29, 2021
NPG Commentary
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March 30, 2021

Climate Displacement Will Cause Increased Migration Within the United States and Worldwide

“The decisions we make about where to live are distorted not just by politics that play down climate risks, but also by expensive subsidies and incentives aimed at defying nature. In much of the developing world, vulnerable people will attempt to flee the emerging perils of global warming, seeking cooler temperatures, more fresh water and safety. But here in the United States, people have largely gravitated toward environmental danger, building along coastlines from New Jersey to Florida and settling across the cloudless deserts of the southwest.” – excerpt from “How Climate Migration Will Reshape America” from The New York Times.

An international research team from Switzerland, Germany, and the Netherlands recently released their study on the risk of population displacement due to river floods in relation to global warming. The journal, Environmental Research Letters, published the group’s findings. The team “used a global climate, hydrology, and inundation modeling change…to quantify the effect of global warming on displacement risk for both current and projected future population distributions.” The authors note, this research is essential because “floods are a major driver of displacement and due to the fact that they are influenced by climate change, it is imperative that we have a better understanding of the future flood displacement risk and how climate change and demographic and socio-economic factors will influence it.” They conclude their work, saying: “The results show that for most regions, both increased flooding and population growth contribute to an increased risk of displacement by river floods… While the resolution of the global models is limited, the effect of global warming is robust across greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, climate models and hydrological models. These findings highlight the need for rapid action on both climate mitigation and adaptation agendas in order to reduce future risks to vulnerable populations.”

In an article published by EcoWatch, Helen Brunt of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) was quoted discussing climate displacement, saying: “In just the last six months there have been 12.6 million people internally displaced around the world, and over 80% of these forced displacements have been caused by disasters, most of which are triggered by climate and weather extremes… More broadly, we need greater action and urgent investment to reduce internal displacement caused by the rising risk of disasters. Investing much more in local organizations and first responders is critical, so they have the resources needed to protect lives, homes, and their communities.”

Climate displacement is an urgent international issue. Action is certainly necessary because data indicated “disasters such as storms, droughts, fires, and floods internally displaced more than 10 million people from September to February.” The IFRC report offered eight overall recommendations:

Investment in and focus on local actors and local responders;
Meaningful community engagement and accountability;
A protection, gender and inclusion (PGI)-informed approach and response;
Strengthening national and branch level internal systems and capabilities;
Monitoring population movements in the context of both slow and sudden onset disasters;
Community-led assessments;
Coordinating and promoting the centrality of durable solutions to displacement; and
Humanitarian diplomacy, and multi-stakeholder partnerships and coordination.

In August of 2020, NPG published a Forum paper that also discussed climate displacement and migration. Author Edwin S. Rubenstein addresses the worldwide issue, adding special consideration to what such significant climate migration would mean for the U.S., noting: “Food. Water. Climate comfort. From time immemorial humans have migrated from areas where these items are scarce to areas where they are abundant. Research shows that 21st century man inhabits about the same ‘climate niche’ as our Stone Age counterparts – places where Mean Average Temperature is in the 50- to 60-degree F. range. Over the next 50 years the geographical area where temperatures are expected to be in this range is projected to shift by more than it has in the past 6,000 years. Some populations may adapt to excessive heat ‘in situ,’ embracing new agricultural technologies or population controls. But for many poor nations, migration may be the only feasible option. With global population expected to rise to about 10 billion by 2070, this implies that as many as 3.5 billion people could migrate to cooler climates. Migration of this magnitude, even if contained within national borders, presents a threat to U.S. national security.”

To read more about population issues, please explore NPG’s Forum paper series, notably:

Climate Change, Migration and National Security, by Edwin S. Rubenstein

The True Environmental Disaster – The Silence on Our Growing Overpopulation, by Michael G. Hanauer

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