Are Lower Birth Rates Cause for Concern?

NPG
December 13, 2021
NPG Commentary
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December 16, 2021

Poll Shows Less Interest in Having Children in U.S.

Are Lower Birth Rates Cause for Concern?

The Washington Post recently reported on an October survey by Pew Research Center which asked non-parents whether they were likely to have children in the future and also asked those with children about the likelihood that they will have additional children in the future. In total, 3,866 men and women participated in this survey.

The concern:

Many believe declining birthrates stand in contrast to the numbers needed to keep the economy stable and to maintain a reliable source of tax payers.

Who was surveyed:

Women between the ages of 18 and 49 & Men between the ages of 18 and 59

Question:

“Thinking about the future, how likely is it that you will have children someday?”

The data:

26% said it was “very unlikely” that they would have children in the future (down 6% from 2018)

21% answered “not too likely” that they would have children in the future (up 5% from 2018)

Of those who answered very unlikely and not too likely –

56% said their reason was because they did not want to (down 7% from 2018)

43% listed other reasons, including: medical issues, economic or financial concerns, and lack of a partner

Washington Post Conclusion:

“Coupled with the recent release of federal demographic data, this poll points to a long-term evolution in parenthood trends in the United States. The spiraling costs of childcare, healthcare, and education – along with global instability, including the coronavirus pandemic and climate change – could all be contributing to a broader change in attitudes to marriage and priorities in life.”

NPG’s goal is to slow, halt, and eventually reverse U.S. population growth – eventually stabilizing at a size that is sustainable for the long term. We believe the optimal population of approximately 150-200 million people (our nation’s size in 1970, which scientists agree was sustainable for our resources) would allow us to protect our fragile ecosystems, conserve our finite resources, and ensure a livable America for future generations. Through this lens, lower birth rates help societies sustainably progress into the future and do not currently represent a threat to our overall economy. The obstacles faced by child-bearing aged Americans are similar to the pressures all Americans face when confronted with too many people and too few safeguards to protect our quality of life and natural resources for future generations.

To read more on population issues, please see NPG’s Forum paper series, notably:

Don’t Call It a Crisis: The Natural Explanation Behind Collapsing Birth Rates, by Nathanial Gronewold