Uncoupling Growth from Prosperity: The U.S. Versus Japan (NPG Footnote)

• B. Meredith Burke
• August 1, 1997
• Forum Papers
• Forum Paper
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An NPG Forum Paper
(NPG Footnote) 
by B. Meredith Burke
August 1997

Who faces the brightest quality-of-life prospects for the year 2100: Japan with a population projected to decline by nearly 60 percent, or the United States, whose 1997 population of 267 million will nearly triple to 750 million (en route to a billion) if present levels of migration and fertility continue? ‘

Demographically-unschooled politicians in both countries’ recent elections tipped their hats towards America. Since 1990 Japanese politicians have al-ternately wooed and criticized their childbearing-age women who at current rates will have fewer than 1.5 births each. Immigration is minuscule, so death rates and personal childbearing choices solely determine population size. Assuming constant fertility and mortality, the population will peak around the year 2005 at 130 million, then slowly diminish by the year 2100 to 55 million (its 1920 population level). At this level will Japan still be a world power?

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