The United States, as the millennium arrives, is overcrowded. We are fast approaching 300 million inhabitants. More and more people are convinced that something must be done and this is especially evidenced by the current attention and concern given to the enormous and mostly unplanned suburban growth—or as it is generally called, “urban sprawl.” Our highways are overwhelmed; our water supplies are dangerously low in many areas; our schools are packed—the problems are endless. However, it is both surprising and disappointing that overpopulation, by itself, is seldom seen as the culprit lurking behind these countless problems. This is in large part attributable to the media’ s repeated failures to put its fingers on the true and basic cause of this growth “malaise” facing our country.

A smaller and stationary (that is, having no further growth or decline) population is in the best interest of the United States. Not only would the total numbers be reduced, but we would no longer have to go through the agonies associated with sudden shifts in our demographic behavior (be it births, deaths, or moving) as we have with the baby boom that began in the late 1940s and with which we are still trying to cope as the “baby boomers” become “senior boomers” early in the twenty-first century.

Furthermore, with a smaller and stationary population, our fragile environment will be better protected. Our quality of life, however defined, will improve. Finally, we will bequeath to our children a much more sustainable population whose members can feel secure in knowing that there is “enough for all of us.”

This book concentrates on the following questions: How do we achieve these goals? How do we reduce our population to a reasonable and sustainable level? How does that population’s distribution attain relative efficiency (where there are no surging “bulges” in certain age groups)? We consider these goals to be not only ideal but necessary if the United States is to maintain anything close to our current quality of life and sustainability.

In the chapters that follow, we will illustrate several population scenarios by manipulating fertility, mortality. and migration (the demographic variables) in various ways. The bottom line is positive: if we are patient, if we have the courage to adjust these demographic variables, especially immigration, then the United States can attain a smaller total population without enormous age bulges—in other words, the United States can become a true stationary population—one that is small enough to sustain life at a high level of quality.

The U.S. population is too large and is still growing. The Census Bureau estimates that at present levels of fertility, mortality, and migration, the nation’s population will reach almost 400 million by 2050.1 That is roughly 130 million more than the current 270 million (in 1999). When one considers that at the beginning of the twentieth century, the population was only 76 million, it is obvious that the United States population has undergone enormous growth over this period.

Today’s population is unsustainable. Even so, by 2050 we will still be growing. By extending the Census Bureau projections (and using the same assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration) the U.S. population would reach 531 million (that is over half a billion) by 2100. Even then it would still be growing. There is no end in sight. But there is a limit to our resources and our natural environment. Something has to give and the sooner the better. The United States cannot continue growing forever. It is critically important to understand what is needed to stop growth and move the United States toward a smaller, sustainable, and eventually optimum population.