THE TIMID CRUSADE
- Lindsey Grant
- January 1, 1994
- Forum Papers
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THE TIMID CRUSADE
An NPG Forum Paper
by Lindsey Grant
January 1994
The nation was far more forthright in addressing the issue of population growth a generation ago than it is now. Meanwhile, we have grown by 56 million people, with apparent complacency. The big environmental organizations see the dangers and say they believe population growth should stop, but they are reticent as to how that goal might be pursued. To answer the question “why so cautious?”, one can offer only speculation, but the population question is fundamentally important, generalizations without specific proposals are an invitation to more growth, and the taboo against discussing specific measures must be broken.
The writer is a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Environment and Population Affairs.
U.S. population, at present rates, will approach 400 million, and perhaps even pass 500 million, by 2050.1 The only two variables available to influence that growth are fertility and migration. That proposition seems self-evident, but it poses an apparently insuperable stumbling block to the big environmental organizations that advocate an end to U.S. population growth. The Heroic Age In 1969, President Nixon raised the issue of U.S. population growth. Let me quote him at some length, even though readers may have seen this quotation before. His was a prophetic vision from, perhaps, a surprising source.
“In 1917 the total number of Americans passed 100 million, after three full centuries of steady growth. In 1967 — just half a century later — the 200 million mark was passed. If the present rate of growth continues, the third hundred million persons will be added in roughly a thirty-year period. This means that by the year 2000, or shortly thereafter, there will be more than 300 million Americans.
“The growth will produce serious challenges for our society. 1 believe that many of our present social problems may be related to the fact that we have had only fifty years in which to accommodate the second hundred million Americans. …
“Where, for example, will the next hundred million Americans live? …
“Other questions confront us. How, for example, will we house the next hundred million Americans? …
“How will we educate and employ such a large number of people? Will our transportation systems move them about as quickly and economically as necessary? How will we provide adequate health care when our population reaches 300 million? Will our political structures have to be reordered, too, when our society grows to such proportions?
“… we should establish as a national goal the provision of adequate family planning services within the next five years to all those who want them but cannot afford them. ”
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Lindsey Grant is a retired Foreign Service Officer; he was a China specialist and served as Director of the Office of Asian Communist Affairs, National Security Council staff member, and Department of State policy Planning staff member. As Deputy Secretary of State for Environmental and Population Affairs, he was Department of State coordinator for the Global 2000 Report to the President, Chairman of the interagency committee on Int’l Environmental Committee and US member of the UN ECE Committee of Experts on the Environment. His books include: Too Many People, Juggernaut, The Horseman and the Bureaucrat, Elephants in Volkswagen, How Many Americans?