THE EDGE OF THE ABYSS
- Lindsey Grant
- February 1, 2008
- Forum Papers
- Forum Paper
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THE EDGE OF THE ABYSS
An NPG Forum Paper
by Lindsey Grant
February 2008
The past year has provided disturbing new evidence that fossil energy is heading into decline faster than had been expected, climate change is happening faster, and the attendant impacts on food production are already being felt. These are the great issues of our time, and they will interact. This will be a tumultuous century, as competition grows for diminishing resources. The human race will not get through it without fundamental changes of our population size, our living arrangements, our consumption patterns, and our expectations – and probably not without mounting hunger and violence. This paper will summarize how the new information changes the prognosis for this century and deepens the need for a new mindset to deal with it.
THE LESSONS OF 2007
The name of the abyss is energy. People tend to worry about one crisis at a time. We do so at our peril. Right now, the crisis of the moment is climate warming, but the decline of fossil energy will affect more people more seriously than climate change for most of this century. Both will generate a coming crisis in food production, though declining fossil energy will eventually stop forcing the climate warming.
…and the source of the crisis is the growth of human population and consumption. Rising population and consumption led to our profligate use of fossil energy, which in turn has been the principal cause of anthropogenic climate change. Further increase in U.S. and world population will make the crisis worse, as will rising consumption levels in developing countries.
The present era begins with the invention of the steam engine in the 18th Century. That innocent invention, first built to pump water out of mines, soon required fossil fuel. It led to the industrial and agricultural revolutions and to the modern world, but the demand for that fuel has led the world, with gathering speed, into a series of interactive changes that are coming together and leading into a giant crisis new to human experience.
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Lindsey Grant is a retired Foreign Service Officer; he was a China specialist and served as Director of the Office of Asian Communist Affairs, National Security Council staff member, and Department of State policy Planning staff member. As Deputy Secretary of State for Environmental and Population Affairs, he was Department of State coordinator for the Global 2000 Report to the President, Chairman of the interagency committee on Int’l Environmental Committee and US member of the UN ECE Committee of Experts on the Environment. His books include: Too Many People, Juggernaut, The Horseman and the Bureaucrat, Elephants in Volkswagen, How Many Americans?