OFFICIAL OPTIMISM, JOURNALISTIC HYPE: THE UN 1996 POPULATION PROJECTIONS

• Lindsey Grant
• December 1, 1997
• Forum Papers
• Forum Paper
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OFFICIAL OPTIMISM, JOURNALISTIC HYPE: THE UN 1996 POPULATION PROJECTIONS
An NPG Forum Paper
by Lindsey Grant
December 1997

The United Nations a year ago distributed its periodic population projection World Population Prospects. The 1996 Revision. The media have belatedly discovered it and distorted it almost beyond recognition. What was a moderate and mildly optimistic adjustment of the 1994 projection has been read as a revolutionary portent of a new population era, to the joy of some but the dismay of other commentators, who display an irrational addiction to continued growth and a visceral fear of its end. A less panicky look is needed at what the UN said, what it may mean, and how much credence can be given to the numbers.

Last April, a Hollywood reporter began a UN LA story with these breathless sentences:

“What might be the most significant news story of the century will be unveiled April 18 in a PBS documentary. The story… reveals that the planet-threatening human population boom is at an end. It suggests over-population. leading to food shortages, ozone holes, unemployment, acid rain, war, environmental poisoning, ominous climatic changes and other catastrophic assaults on Mother Earth, is in abeyance.”

Wonderful news, indeed, if it were true. The problem is that the reporter promoted a mildly optimistic UN forecast into a glorious new dawn.

The Wall Street Journal and New York Times have been similarly misled but hardly ecstatic. A February Journal article (built upon a factual error) predicted that much of the world will soon be in a “demographic free fall” and used the occasion to castigate the “population-control crowd.” 3 It “adjusted” the UN tables to predict a peak world population of about 7 billion in 2030 — 170 years sooner and 3.7 billion people less than the UN’s own projection.

The hype seems to be originating primarily with the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), which is funded heavily by business interests and publicized by the Journal and the Times. A Journal article in October avoided the errors and “adjustments” but had much the same message; that world population growth is about to turn around, and that a turnaround will be catastrophic.’

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