IT’S TIME TO STOP AT TWO

• Leon Bouvier
• April 1, 1996
• Forum Papers
• Forum Paper
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IT’S TIME TO STOP AT TWO
An NPG Forum Paper
by  Leon F. Bouvier
April 1996

In recent months, the American public has awakened to the fact that our country is becoming more overcrowded than ever. We have seen tremendous public pressure to reduce both legal and illegal immigration —and most lawmakers are heeding the call to pass comprehensive reform of our immigration policy and reduce the number of immigrants allowed in annually.

Fertility is the Other Factor

Such changes will go a long way in reducing population pressure in the United States in the future. But the other most significant contributor to population growth — fertility — is sadly missing from the debate.

Population growth is not exclusively an immigration issue. It is my belief that the optimum rate of population growth for the United States should be negative until such time as the scale of economic activity, and its environmental effects, is reduced to a level that would be sustainable indefinitely. Then, and only then, should we, as a nation, consider a return to zero population growth.

If fertility remained at its current level, even reducing immigration to 200,000 per year would still lead to a population of some 350 million in 2050.

If present rates of population and economic growth are allowed to continue, the end result, within the lifetimes of many of us, would inevitably be near universal poverty in a hopelessly polluted world. Somehow, we must find a way —or ways — to eventually reduce population size if our quality of life is to be maintained and improved. A substantial decline in immigration is a start toward that goal — a much smaller population than today’s 265 million — be it 150 million or 200 million as the eminent senior statesman, George Kerman, recommends.

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