HOW TO GET THERE FROM HERE: THE DEMOGRAPHIC ROUTE TO OPTIMAL POPULATION SIZE

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HOW TO GET THERE FROM HERE: THE DEMOGRAPHIC ROUTE TO OPTIMAL POPULATION SIZE
An NPG Forum Paper
by Leon F. Bouvier
December 1989

This is the second in a series of NPG FORUM papers exploring Optimum Population. The author is currently a Visiting Professor of Sociology at Old Dominion University and Adjunct Professor of Demography at Tulane University School of Public Health. He is a former Vice President of the Population Reference Bureau, and he served as a demographic consultant to the U.S. House of Representatives Select Committee on Population and the Select Commission on Immigration and Refugee Policy.

Our “Love Affair” with Growth

During a recent episode of the popular TV game show, Jeopardy, the college-level participants were asked which country will “surpass China in population within the next century.” Two of the three contestants properly identified India. The third replied “the United States.” Such an answer from a Harvard student is surprising. But even more surprising was the comment of the host, Alex Trevek: “That is a noble thought but unfortunately it is incorrect.”

In January 1989 the U.S. Census Bureau published a new set of population projections (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989). Its middle scenario projected an eventual decline in population starting fifty years from now. The “neo-doomsdayers,” worried about population decline, jumped up in unison to sound the alarm. Journalist Ben Wattenberg, already on record as advocating more births to American women, commented in US News and World Report (1989) “The surest way to break the downward momentum of the projections is through more immigration. And only more immigration can provide the stream of ‘instant adults’ to deal with the looming problems in a timely manner.” Economist Julian Simon, another supporter of higher fertility, has argued that immigration levels should be raised to perhaps 2 million annually (Washington Post, 1988). The media generally viewed the prospect of declining population quite gloomily—never mind that the so-called “middle range” scenario of the Census Bureau was in fact a rather low projection given current levels of fertility, mortality, and immigration. (Bouvier, 1989)

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