How Well Do You Know Your Spouse?

That is admittedly an odd question for NPG to ask, but a recent investigation has led to criminal charges against eleven individuals for arranging fake marriages to enable one spouse to receive a Green Card. According to the United States Department of Justice (USDOJ), "'The defendants and their co-conspirators allegedly operated a nationwide and international, multimillion-dollar marriage fraud scheme, using participants to abuse United States immigration laws for their own profit.'"

The indictment claims that more than 1,000 marriages were orchestrated by the group “from at least 2016 through July 2026” and those buying the services paid as much as $100,000 for the deal. A full investigation will likely find others guilty of fraud as well. The USDOJ Press Release explains: “The network included facilitators who oversaw the scheme and identified foreign-national customers; recruiters who found willing United States citizens and helped ensure their continued participation; and assistants who prepared immigration paperwork and coordinated the submission of fraudulent lawful permanent residency (Green Card) applications to U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS). The scheme also relied on marriage officiants, attorneys, tax preparers, insurance providers, and other service providers.”

NPG adamantly opposes any form of fraud to obtain U.S. citizenship or legal residency. We have always believed that immigration should be capped at no more than 200,000 legal admissions per year. Any attempt to cheat the system and enter the country without authorization must be punished to discourage such action in the future.

The Department of Justice’s press release can be found here.

The Heat Is On!

If you thought July was unbearably hot, you are not alone. And more importantly, you are not wrong. According to the National Centers for Environmental Information, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, July 2026 was the hottest month on record since recording began in 1895. More than 180 locations broke or tied the records for all-time highs, and the averages for the nation exceeded all previous numbers.

In addition to the exceptional heat, drought was also a problem, with three of the top ten worst drought months (since 1895) occurring in 2026. Florida, Georgia, Texas, and South Carolina face some of the most extreme circumstances, and damages for 2026 already exceed $2.5 billion.

Every additional person added to our nation or planet makes these conditions worse. Even the most environmentally conscience person emits harmful gases by simply exhaling. Each individual needs, at a bare minimum, clean water, food, and shelter – all of which affect our collective environment. As once underdeveloped nations modernize, consumer habits will contribute to environmental damage. This is particularly concerning in countries like China and India (each now has more than a billion people!) where industry is not regulated like it is in the U.S. and emissions are more dangerous. As these countries continue their trajectory to a more modern life, how many more cars, all of which release harmful emissions, will crowd their highways? The list of ever-growing sources of pollution could go on for several pages…

The best way to reduce harmful emissions is to reduce the number of people emitting them!

To read the article on record-breaking July temperatures, please visit Yale Climate Connections.

NPG has published several papers on population growth and climate change. We encourage you to revisit:

• Climate Change, Migration, and National Security
• How Covid, Climate, and the Cartels Reshape U.S. Refugee Policy
• Human Fertility and Climate Change

NPG also released a book review of Envious and Deceived: How Classical Education and Psychoanalysis Could Have Saved Us, by J.J. Penniman. Dr. Karen Shragg’s review of this book will certainly open your eyes to a powerful argument.

Rethinking the Alarm Over Falling Birth Rates

Falling birth rates have generated increasingly dire warnings about population decline, economic stagnation, and even the long-term survival of some nations. But in an August 19 article for The Atlantic, “The Case for Chilling Out About Birth Rates,” staff writer Idrees Kahloon examines whether today’s demographic concerns warrant such alarm. His conclusion is considerably less dire: declining fertility will bring challenges, but population shrinkage is unlikely to produce the catastrophic future sometimes predicted.

After deftly tracing more than two centuries of population concerns and predictions, Kahloon turns to today’s demographic landscape, noting that fertility has been declining for decades across countries with vastly different cultures, economies, and social policies. Birth rates are now below replacement level in the United States, Europe, India, and much of the world outside Africa. The trend also resists many common explanations. Countries with generous family policies have experienced substantial fertility declines, as have societies with strong traditional expectations surrounding marriage and family. Instead, Kahloon points to a broader relationship between human development and fertility: as societies become wealthier and better educated, people tend to choose smaller families. If declining fertility reflects such a widespread change in individual preferences, reversing it through government policy may prove difficult.

A smaller or older population would not be without consequences. Kahloon describes potential challenges including underused infrastructure, fewer consumers, increased demand for elder care, and pressure on public benefit programs. He also examines economists’ concerns that fewer people could eventually mean fewer workers and innovators, slowing economic growth. Yet adaptation is possible. Productivity gains, technological advances, and changes in how workers are employed could offset some effects of a smaller population. University of Houston economist Dietrich Vollrath offers perhaps the article’s most important distinction: “But ultimately—it’s always interesting to say this as a growth economist—who gives a s**t about the growth rate? It’s not actually the thing you’re trying to optimize. You’re trying to optimize welfare and living standards.”

That distinction deserves greater attention in discussions about America’s demographic future. Population growth is often treated as inherently beneficial because it can expand the workforce, consumer base, and overall economy. But growth itself is not the same as improved quality of life. A stable or gradually declining population will require economic and social adjustments, just as periods of rapid growth have required their own costly adjustments. Rather than treating lower fertility as a crisis that must be reversed, policymakers should consider how communities and economies can adapt while prioritizing human well-being, living standards, and long-term sustainability.

To read The Atlantic’s The Case for Chilling Out About Birth Rates, click here.

A Growing Childfree Population Could Reshape U.S. Population Trends

The number of Americans who do not have children and do not want them in the future is growing—a demographic shift with implications for fertility rates and long-term U.S. population growth. A new study published August 12 in PLOS ONE, “The Spatial Distribution of the U.S. Childfree Population: Does State Context Matter?” examines where childfree adults live and whether state-level conditions help explain their decision not to have children. Michigan State University researchers Zachary P. Neal and Jennifer Watling Neal note that the share of U.S. nonparents ages 15 to 44 who are childfree increased from 13.8% in 2002 to 29.4% in 2023. As the authors explain, “The childfree population plays an important role in fertility rate and population growth trends,” making this growing group important to understanding future population trajectories.

Using survey data from 20,118 adults across all 50 states, the researchers found substantial variation in the prevalence of childfree adults. California had the highest estimated share at 22%, followed by Michigan at 19.9% and New Hampshire at 19.4%, while Louisiana had the lowest at 9.4%. Despite these differences, researchers found no significant evidence that childfree adults are clustered within particular regions of the country. They also examined whether state population, cost of living, abortion laws, and public education spending were associated with being childfree. While some state characteristics were associated with childfree status, individual demographic characteristics—including marital status, age, and sex—were substantially stronger predictors. For example, the association between being single and being childfree was 11 times stronger than the association between being childfree and the population of a person’s state.

The findings led the researchers to what they describe as important “policy implications, or rather, policy non-implications.” Because individual characteristics were much more strongly associated with childfree status than state context, the authors conclude that state policies intended to encourage population growth by persuading people to have children are unlikely to influence those who simply do not want children. They caution that the study identifies associations rather than causes and conclude that their findings limit the potential effectiveness of state policies designed to achieve population growth through larger families.

As policymakers increasingly debate declining fertility and pursue ways to encourage higher birth rates, understanding the growing childfree population adds important context to the conversation. If a substantial and increasing share of Americans do not intend to have children, efforts aimed at reversing demographic trends through pronatalist policies may face inherent limitations. Rather than assuming continued population growth must be restored, demographic policy should recognize changing individual preferences and consider how the nation can successfully adapt to slower growth while protecting quality of life and long-term sustainability.

To read the full report, click here.