August 16, 2022

Congressional Budget Office Offers Analysis of Future U.S. Population Numbers

In 2052 Immigration Will Be the Only Source of Population Growth

At the end of July, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released their Demographic Outlook: 2022 to 2052. Beginning with why the size of the U.S. population is relevant, the CBO notes: “The size of the U.S. population, as well as its age and sex composition, affect the economy and the federal budget. For example, the size of the working-age population affects the number of people employed; likewise, the size of the population age 65 or older affects the number of beneficiaries of Social Security and other federal programs.” Simply put, awareness of population numbers and outlook are paramount to the well-being of the United States. The CBO projects future U.S. population growth by examining fertility, mortality, and net immigration.

In the report, the CBO shares that the rate of growth is significantly lower in the next 30 years (than in the previous 40 years); however, their projection still shows that “U.S. population growth will grow to 369 million people in 2052 from 335 million in 2022 – an annual growth rate of 0.3%, just a third of the rate from 1980 to 2021.” The report also estimates “that the 25-54 prime working age population grows at a lower rate of 0.2% annually in the 30-year forecast period. And U.S. deaths start to exceed births in 2043, meaning all U.S. population growth from that year onward depends solely on immigration.”

Looking ahead, the CBO estimates that in “the next decade, immigration accounts for about three-quarters of the overall increase in the size of the population, and the net effects of fertility and mortality account for the remaining quarter. After 2032, population growth is increasingly driven by net immigration, which accounts for all population growth in 2043 and beyond.”

Taking a closer look at fertility rates, the CBO shares that “the total fertility rate falls to 1.6 births per woman in 2021, rises to 1.75 births per woman in 2030 and remains at that value thereafter. That rate is below the replacement rate – the fertility rate required for a generation to exactly replace itself in the absence of immigration – of about 2.1 births per woman.” Examining today’s mortality rates shows a general decline “in the United States since at least the 20^th century. For the most part, mortality rates have decreased more quickly for younger people than for older people,” and “life expectancy at birth and at age 65 are projected to increase from 77.1 years and 18.3 years in 2022 to 82.3 years and 21.7 years, respectively, in 2052.”

Net immigration (the number of all people who enter the United States less the number who leave in that year) projections were made by studying three categories: “lawful permanent residents (LPR), who are authorized to work, liable to pay income taxes, and eligible for most federal programs; legal temporary residents (LTR), whose eligibility for federal programs is limited; and foreign-born people without legal status, who are generally not eligible for federal programs.” With the specific parameters in place, the CBO determined: “Under current law, annual net immigration to the United States would rise from 950,000 people, on average, in the first decade of the projection period to 1.1 million people, on average, in the third decade…LPRs, which are the largest category of projected total net flows, rise from 800,000 to 870,000 people per year, on average, in the first decade to the third decade in CBO’s projections. Net flows of foreign-born people without legal status rise from 80,000 people per year, on average, in the first decade to 150,000 people per year in the third decade. CBO projects net flows of LTRs to be 80,000 people per year on average throughout the 30-year projection period.”

While the CBO strives to maintain an objective, impartial bias during data analysis and does not offer solutions – NPG would have supporters understand the significance of this projected outcome of U.S. net growth stemming only from immigration. Between growing national debt, the need to repair crumbling infrastructure and build more to accommodate population growth, and the horrors of climate change, one thing is clear: the U.S. urgently needs a smaller, truly sustainable population – and the surest path towards that goal is through amending current immigration policies. Otherwise, these trends of debt, debris, and fire will surely multiply and expand coast to coast.