Navigating the Future: The Global Demographic Shift

• NPG
• April 8, 2024
• NPG Commentary
• 0 Comments

Tomorrow’s Challenge: Adapting to a New Demographic Landscape

A recent thought-provoking article titled “Dramatic declines in global fertility rates set to transform global population patterns by 2100” sheds light on the implications of plummeting birth rates and the profound impact this will have on our world. Fertility rates are on a steep decline worldwide. By mid-century, an overwhelming majority of nations—155 out of 204—are projected to experience fertility rates that are below replacement level, causing population totals to begin to decline. This trend is expected to encompass a staggering 97% of countries by the year 2100.

Alongside this, we are beginning to see a dramatic shift in where children are being born. Low-income regions are anticipated to see their share of global live births surge from 18% in 2021 to 35% by the end of the century. Specifically noteworthy is that half of all global births will occur in sub-Saharan Africa by 2100.

While high fertility rates in lower-income areas may be tempered with improved access to contraceptives and education for women, wealthier regions facing a scarcity of births will need to adjust to a society with fewer people. Over the course of several generations, economies will shift to accommodate a smaller population which will ultimately need fewer resources to thrive.

In the article, co-lead author and Lead Research Scientist from IHME, Dr. Natalia V. Bhattacharjee, states: “And once nearly every country’s population is shrinking, reliance on open immigration will become necessary to sustain economic growth.”

NPG firmly believes collaboration is essential in addressing the challenges of global demographic shifts. By uniting in our efforts to slow, halt, and eventually reverse population growth, we can forge a path toward a responsible and balanced future for the next generation. Our approach requires a multifaceted strategy, incorporating supportive social policies, promoting and protecting women’s rights, and amending US immigration policies.

In February, NPG published a new Forum paper, in which author Karen Shragg, unflinchingly tackles the immigration issue, noting: “The US, like every other country, has limits. We have limited water supplies and limited infrastructure. We cannot keep building on every square inch of soil to accommodate more and more newcomers without threatening our quality of life. The open arms of a caring citizenry, one that welcomes more and more immigrants, even as our current population sits at 336,000,000, creates a one-way ticket to more poverty, increased homelessness, and decreased wildlife populations. These ‘open arms’ become a welcome mat to scarcity for our nation.”

 Through your continued support and donations to NPG, we can advocate for these necessary changes.

Make a Difference – Donate Now

To read more about population-related issues, please click here.