July 14, 2022

China’s Population is Growing Slower than Before

China is currently experiencing a drop in total fertility rate, and that is welcome news in the world’s most populous nation. The World Bank reports that China grew from 667 million to 1.26 billion in the 40 years between 1960 and 2000. According to new data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, the population grew from 1.41212 billion to 1.41260 billion in 2021. This calculation highlights the low increase of just under 500,000. For comparison, China’s annual growth was 8 million ten years ago.

BBC Future recently published an article focusing on China’s population. According to the report, while the total fertility rate in the United States and Australia is 1.6, in China, the total fertility rate in 2021 was 1.15. There are many theories as to why the birth rate is currently low. Some point to habit, saying the population has gotten used to small families. Another speculates cost of living is prohibitive. Also, many are waiting longer to get married, which may dampen desires to procreate.

“The Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences team predicts an annual average decline of 1.1% after 2021, pushing China’s population down to 587 million in 2100, less than half of what it is today.” Such a scenario is hard to imagine in a country where “there are currently 100 working-age people available to support every 20 elderly people.”

This type of prediction, in which the number of working adults in any given country is lower than the number of older adults in that same country, does not bode well for economic growth and productivity in China. Author Xiujian Peng expands on the concern, sharing these crucial points:

• Manufacturing labor costs in China are twice as high as in Vietnam.
• China will need to direct more of its productive resources toward the well-being of its increasingly elderly population.
• Pension payments will grow from 4% of GDP to 20% of GDP in 2100.
• Those exporting (Australia) and importing (United States) from China will need to adjust accordingly.

Much like how we use the State Spotlight Series to highlight population issues tackled in different states, it is also relevant to take note of population trends and issues in other countries worldwide. Population data is essential because it helps us plan for the future. The benefit of knowing the size and composition of a country’s population is that it helps to determine the best path forward regarding infrastructure and sustainability. NPG believes awareness of population issues should be well-rounded and include understanding data from other countries. We need to know what is happening in the world to work towards a smaller, truly sustainable population.

Will China reduce it’s population by more than half over the next 80 years? That remains to be seen. It seems almost impossible to imagine a country shrinking that much so quickly.  We should, however, celebrate the fact that their numbers are beginning to shrink, and use their current situation as an example for the US.  The transition may be difficult, but the long term benefits of a smaller population will surely outweigh the many difficulties of an incredibly large population.