April 20, 2022

U.S. Total Fertility Rate Alone is Not Enough to Determine Demise of Nation

On January 18, 2022, Elon Musk took to one of the world’s largest social media platforms (Twitter) and shared: “We should be much more worried about population collapse.” His tweet earned 195K Likes, 5,314 Quote Tweets, and 20.5K Retweets. He followed his first comment with two additional tweets, noting first, that: “UN projections are utter nonsense. Just multiply last year’s birth by life expectancy. Given downward trend in birth rate, that is the best case unless reversed.” And, second: “If there aren’t enough people for Earth, then there definitely won’t be enough for Mars.”

Musk is known for many things including his wealth, business acumen, and tendency to speak freely on critical and/or controversial topics. His assessment on world population – that human population will deplete beyond repair, leaving those left behind to sift through the rubble of yesterday’s civilizations – is no exception. Musk accompanied his tweet with an NPR article, U.S. Birthrate Fell by 4% in 2020, Hitting Another Record Low, from May of 2021. The article, as its title lends, covers the total fertility rate in the U.S. and the decline in the total number of births in the nation. After outlining the many facts and figures pulled to support the narrative of the piece, journalist Bill Chappell notes: “Even before the pandemic, the annual population growth rate in the U.S. was seen falling to its lowest levels in the past 100 years – and the nation’s falling birthrate is just one part of that equation. The number of U.S. deaths had been rising as America’s large baby boomer generation ages. And, immigration, the tool that the U.S. and other countries use to compensate for an aging workforce and population declines, has fallen from the heights reached in 2016, when more than 1 million people moved to the United States.”

We, as a nation, have seen these headlines and figures before. They are as inflammatory as they are inaccurate. Add to that the final sentence of Chappell’s 2021 article, and we begin to see where this theory – that population decline will lead to ruin – begins to crumble. He closes, sharing: “That dynamic has shown signs of a sharp reversal in recent months as a growing number of migrants have been arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border since President Biden took office.” While total fertility rate has been below replacement level for some time now, the number of immigrants coming into the U.S. drives our population growth.

Musk’s tweet, along with the NPR article, lead to a much bigger question:  Do we, as a nation and a planet, actually want to continue to grow or would a slow and gradual reduction in our numbers lead to a more environmentally and economically sound world?  NPG was founded in 1972 to educate all who will listen regarding the need for policies designed to slow, halt, and eventually reverse population growth.  We firmly believe that both the United States and the world are already vastly overpopulated, and that we must begin to turn the tide to achieve smaller numbers.  We respectfully disagree with Mr. Musk when he states that we should be worried about population collapse.  With more than 800 million people lacking safe drinking water and nearly 10% of the world’s people living in extreme poverty, we should be worried about the exact opposite!

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