January 31, 2023

Those of us working to protect the planet for future generations received a small gift this month. Demographers in China indicate that their nation is now experiencing the first population decline. At NPG, we see this as a victory!

Media headlines, however, took a very different approach.

The Wall Street Journal states:

“China’s Shrinking Population Is Deeper Problem Than Slow Growth for Its Economy”

The New York Times headlines read:

“Why China’s Shrinking Population Is Cause for Alarm”

“China’s Population Falls, Heralding a Demographic Crisis”

And The Washington Post said:

“China’s first population decline in 60 years sounds demographic alarm”

The prevailing question, of course, is why are these (and many other) headlines so down on a trend that should be celebrated? After all, a smaller population would afford everyone a better quality of life. Fewer people mean more secure job opportunities, a better education, easier access to clean water and healthy foods, more affordable housing, and more open green space.

Geographically, China is roughly the size of the United States, but it has more than four times as many people. A huge portion of the population lives in and around the megacities near the eastern coast. This massive concentration of people, coupled with China’s lack of meaningful environmental policies, has led to some of the worst air pollution in the world. As China continues to industrialize and more people drive automobiles, a larger share of the population will be subjected to dangerous levels of pollutants in the air.

China deserves a break, and even they realized this in the 1970s when Chinese leadership understood that their population was much too large and implemented a one-child policy to reduce their growth. While that policy was controversial and widely criticized around the world, the benefits are finally coming through.

Interestingly, after the policy was abandoned and couples were free to have more than one child most chose to keep their family small. Many couples understand the many benefits of smaller families, both in China and around the world.

A slight decline in China’s population is welcome news. Let us hope that other countries, including the U.S., eventually reach such a milestone.

We encourage readers to review NPG’s 2022 Forum paper, Japan’s Ride into the Demographic Danger Zone – and Why It’s Nothing to Fear. Author Nathanial Gronewold succinctly argues that Japan’s recent decline in population is good for the country and that the naysayers have not carefully thought through their worries.