Will 2022 Be the First Year of U.S. Negative Population Growth?

• Nathanial Gronewold
• February 14, 2022
• Forum Papers
• Forum Paper
• 1 Comments

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An NPG Forum Paper
by Nathanial Gronewold
February 2022

Abstract: America’s population growth came to a virtual standstill last year. Experts point to COVID-19 and say the nation will resume its relentless push to 400 million Americans just as soon as the ongoing crisis ends. But it’s plausible that America could decline somewhat in population numbers this year as the pandemic rages on. And even though population increases will likely resume at some point, America’s growth trend may be coming to an end much sooner than expected thanks in part to the pandemic.

Annual population growth in the United States now stands at a record low. Will COVID-19 send it into early reverse? It’s possible, though far from certain.

On December 21, the Census Bureau reported that the United States’ population expanded by just 0.1% last year,
“the lowest rate since the nation’s founding.” It’s an astonishing milestone, with Census citing “decreased net international migration, decreased fertility, and increased mortality due in part to the COVID-19 pandemic” as causes. 

To clarify, the nation’s population still grew last year. Despite a media panic following this latest data release the Census Bureau said total U.S. population expanded by 392,665 people in 2021, a figure slightly greater than the population of Iceland. More population growth can be expected in subsequent years depending on the depth of our economic malaise, how long the pandemic continues, the lethality of emerging variants, and the degree to which immigration resumes. But this growth is still the slowest ever, well below the average two million additional people per year or so witnessed for decades. And as I’ll argue below, U.S. population growth could be dragged lower or even turn negative in 2022 as America begins Year Three of the COVID-19 pandemic….Continue reading the full Forum paper by clicking here.