THE IMPACT OF IMMIGRATION ON UNITED STATES’ POPULATION SIZE: 1950 TO 2050

• Leon Bouvier
• November 1, 1998
• Forum Papers
• Forum Paper
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THE IMPACT OF IMMIGRATION ON UNITED STATES’ POPULATION SIZE: 1950 TO 2050
An NPG Forum Paper
by Leon F. Bouvier
November 1998

This brief demographic analysis looks at the period 1950-2050 in order to assess the impact of immigration. both direct and indirect, on United States’ population size and growth. In the year 2000, our U.S. population will be 43 million larger than it would have been if there had been no immigration after 1950. Over one-third (35%) of our total population growth during the period 1950-2000 will have been caused by immigration, either directly or from births to post-1950 immigrants residing in the U.S. In the Arty year period 2000-2050, if immigration continues at the present level, our population is projected to grow by 119 million. Immigration would account for about two-thirds of that enormous growth, By 2050 our U.S. population would reach almost 394 million and still be growing rapidly.

Introduction

Much has been written about the growing level of immigration into the United States over the past two decades. Since the mid-1950s, both the absolute and net numbers of such in-migration have equaled and surpassed those noted at the turn of this century. Far too little attention, however, has been paid to quantifying the importance of immigration as an engine of U.S. population growth.

Due to the uncertainties in the data on illegal immigration and on emigration (out-migration) as well as the difficulties in ascertaining information on immigrant fertility, there has been disagreement on immigration’s full impact on our population growth. Some previous efforts to assess its demographic impact have tended to focus only on direct immigration and have thus underestimated its effect. We know that currently, nearly one million immigrants enter the country every year— legally or illegally — and stay here permanently. But of our total population growth, how much can be attributed to immigration?

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