Immigration Will Drive U.S. Population Growth Throughout the 21st Century
- Edwin S. Rubenstein
- December 29, 2023
- Forum Papers
- Forum Paper
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Immigration Will Drive U.S. Population Growth Throughout the 21st Century
An NPG Forum Paper
by Edwin S. Rubenstein
December 2023
The U.S. population is expected to reach a high of nearly 370 million in 2080 before edging down to 366 million in 2100, according to a Census report released in November. By 2100 the total resident population is expected to increase 9.7% from 2022, according to the middle (most likely) population scenario.
The report is essentially an update of the last Census population projections that were released in 2017. The current report extends population projections to 2100 — the first time since 2000 that government population projections have stretched that far into the future.
Sandra Johnson, a Census Bureau demographer, explains why an update was needed:
“The U.S. has experienced notable shifts in the components of population change over the last five years,” she says. “Some of these, like the increases in mortality caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, are expected to be short term while others, including the declines in fertility that have persisted for decades, are likely to continue into the future. Incorporating additional years of data on births, deaths and international migration into our projections process resulted in a slower pace of population growth through 2060 than was previously projected.”
Ms. Johnson was right: U.S. population growth has slowed. But the number of immigrants, and their share of our population, is galloping ahead, seemingly without limit:
- The foreign-born population hit 47 million in 2022, a record high in American history.
- Immigrants now account for 14.3% of the population – one in seven residents. As recently as 1990 they were one in 13 residents.
- Since January 2021 the total foreign-born population has risen by about 4.4% – more than double the percentage rise in the native-born
population. - Illegal immigrants are estimated to have accounted for about two-thirds of growth in the foreign-born population since then.
- Taking a longer view, since 2000 the total immigrant population has grown by 50%; it’s doubled since 1990; tripled since 1980; and quadrupled since 1970.
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Ed Rubenstein, president of ESR Research, is an experienced business researcher, financial analyst, and economics journalist. He has written extensively on federal tax policy, government waste, the Reagan legacy, and – most recently – on immigration. He is the author of two books: The Right Data (1994) and From the Empire State to the Vampire State: New York in a Downward Transition (with Herbert London). His essays on public policy have appeared in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Harvard Business Review, Investor’s Business Daily, Newsday, and National Review. His TV appearances include Firing Line, Bill Moyers, McNeil-Lehr, CNBC, and Debates-Debates. Mr. Rubenstein has a B.A. from Johns Hopkins and a graduate degree in economics from Columbia University.
