Controlling Population in A Strong Economy: Is Feminism The Answer?
- Edwin S. Rubenstein
- March 21, 2019
- Forum Papers
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CONTROLLING POPULATION IN A STRONG
ECONOMY: IS FEMINISM THE ANSWER?
An NPG Forum Paper
by Edwin S. Rubenstein
For most of human history population growth and economic growth have moved in tandem. As humans invented agriculture (several times over a period of centuries, according to some archeologists) they managed to produce more food than they could consume. Population growth ensued. Food surpluses gave homo sapiens time to develop the “stuff” of civilization: technology, infrastructure, science, and medical care. These advances brought lower death rates and accelerated population growth still further. This cycle, called “demographic transition” by professionals, has repeated itself over and over again through the millennia.
In recent years, however, the link between population and economic growth has gone missing. The Great Recession – the worst economic decline since the 1930s – ended in 2009. Despite a long and increasingly strong economic recovery, marked by record low unemployment and strong wage gains, births and fertility rates have continued to fall.
The fertility rate fell to 60.3 births per 1,000 women of childbearing age in 2017, down 4% from 2016, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. It was the largest annual decline since 2010, when families were still reeling from the effects of the Great Recession. The number of births also declined for the third straight year, hitting the lowest level since 1987.
“Every year I look at data and expect it will be the year that birthrates start to tick up, and every year we hit another all-time low,” Kenneth M. Johnson, a demographer at the University of New Hampshire, is quoted as saying. “It’s one of the big demographic mysteries of recent times.”¹
What does seem in sync with the economy is the new assertiveness of women – exemplified by the “Me Too” movement, a record number of women elected to political office or running large corporations, and millennials postponing marriage. Feminist activists call it the “Third Wave” of their movement, comparing it to the 1920s and the 1970s, when fertility and economic growth also decoupled. This leads to an obvious, but largely…
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Ed Rubenstein, president of ESR Research, is an experienced business researcher, financial analyst, and economics journalist. He has written extensively on federal tax policy, government waste, the Reagan legacy, and – most recently – on immigration. He is the author of two books: The Right Data (1994) and From the Empire State to the Vampire State: New York in a Downward Transition (with Herbert London). His essays on public policy have appeared in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Harvard Business Review, Investor’s Business Daily, Newsday, and National Review. His TV appearances include Firing Line, Bill Moyers, McNeil-Lehr, CNBC, and Debates-Debates. Mr. Rubenstein has a B.A. from Johns Hopkins and a graduate degree in economics from Columbia University.
