AFRICAN IMMIGRATION HURTS THE U.S…AND AFRICA
- Edwin S. Rubenstein
- December 27, 2018
- Forum Papers
- Forum Paper
- 0 Comments
Click here for a downloadable, printable PDF version
An NPG Forum Paper
by Edwin S. Rubenstein
Unlike other advanced industrial countries U.S. population continues to increase, mainly because of immigration. That is a well-known fact. Not nearly so well-known is the role of Sub-Saharan immigrants in driving U.S. population growth. The overall growth of this population has been nothing short of extraordinary:
The Sub-Saharan African immigrant population roughly doubled every decade between 1980 and 2010, and rose by another 29% from 2010 to 2015. In 2016 (latest available data) 1,769,778 lived in the U.S., accounting for 4% of the nation’s 43 million immigrants. Their share will inevitably increase: Eight percent of persons granted legal permanent resident status in 2015 were Sub-Saharan Africans, as were more than one-third of all refugees admitted that year.
The oversized role played by Sub-Saharan Africans in U.S. population growth should not come as a surprise. For decades the region’s population has grown faster than other major sources of U.S. immigrants.
The main reason for Sub-Saharan population growth is a sharp decline in infant and child mortality without a commensurate reduction in fertility rates, as occurred in Asia during its demographic transition in the 1990s. In China, lower child mortality was coupled with a single-child policy and increased access to contraceptives; the results are evident in the inflection of the China line. India has recently replaced Mexico and China as the leading source of new U.S. immigrants – an outcome also consistent with the graphic.
In 1980, Sub-Saharan Africa’s population was about 370 million; today it is over 1 billion. It is projected to double again, to 2.2 billion by 2050 – that’s close to the entire world population of 1950.
Sub-Saharan women reportedly want fewer children, but their political leaders still believe that education and economic growth alone will trigger a reduction in fertility. The ultimate goal is the elusive “demographic dividend,” a reduction in the number of children each worker must support.[…]
Continue reading the full Forum paper by clicking here.
Ed Rubenstein, president of ESR Research, is an experienced business researcher, financial analyst, and economics journalist. He has written extensively on federal tax policy, government waste, the Reagan legacy, and – most recently – on immigration. He is the author of two books: The Right Data (1994) and From the Empire State to the Vampire State: New York in a Downward Transition (with Herbert London). His essays on public policy have appeared in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Harvard Business Review, Investor’s Business Daily, Newsday, and National Review. His TV appearances include Firing Line, Bill Moyers, McNeil-Lehr, CNBC, and Debates-Debates. Mr. Rubenstein has a B.A. from Johns Hopkins and a graduate degree in economics from Columbia University.